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Hebei Kungfu vs Shaanxi Changan Athletic — League One 2018

Hebei Kungfu
Hebei Kungfu
FT
4 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
12/3/2022League OneLeague One · Round 33Jiangning Football Training Base Field No.2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Hebei Kungfu37%
×Draw28%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hebei Kungfu
1.20
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 57 away

creates per match

Hebei Kungfu
1.35
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.42

allows per match

Hebei Kungfu
0.87
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.05

finishing

Hebei Kungfu+0.00on par
Shaanxi Changan Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebei Kungfu ↓

Shaanxi Changan Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hebei Kungfu or draw
65%
Hebei Kungfu or Shaanxi Changan Athletic
72%
Draw or Shaanxi Changan Athletic
63%

Winning margin

Hebei Kungfu wins by 2+
16%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hebei Kungfu 1+ goals
70%
Hebei Kungfu 2+ goals
34%
Hebei Kungfu 3+ goals
12%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1+ goals
68%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 2+ goals
32%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hebei Kungfu (draw refunded)
52%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebei Kungfu at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.87 · 69 matches

Shaanxi Changan Athletic away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.05 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebei Kungfu attack 1.35 + Shaanxi Changan Athletic defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.20

Shaanxi Changan Athletic attack 1.42 + Hebei Kungfu defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hebei Kungfu scores more
37%
level
28%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic scores more
35%

Hebei Kungfu at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hebei Kungfu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Hebei Kungfu 4–3 Shaanxi Changan Athletic

Hebei Kungfu beat Shaanxi Changan Athletic 4-3 in League One on December 3, 2022.

The match was played at Jiangning Football Training Base Field No.2 in Nanjing.