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Shaanxi Changan Athletic vs Guangxi Baoyun — League One 2018

Shaanxi Changan Athletic
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Guangxi Baoyun
Guangxi Baoyun
7/28/2022League OneLeague One · Round 11Jiangsu Jiangning Football Training Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Shaanxi Changan Athletic47%
×Draw28%
Guangxi Baoyun25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.35
Guangxi Baoyun
0.90

Shaanxi Changan Athletic creates 50% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 63 away

creates per match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.46
Guangxi Baoyun
0.86

allows per match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic
0.93
Guangxi Baoyun
1.25

finishing

Shaanxi Changan Athletic+0.00on par
Guangxi Baoyun+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shaanxi Changan Athletic ↓

Guangxi Baoyun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Shaanxi Changan Athletic or draw
75%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic or Guangxi Baoyun
72%
Draw or Guangxi Baoyun
53%

Winning margin

Shaanxi Changan Athletic wins by 2+
22%
Guangxi Baoyun wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1+ goals
74%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 2+ goals
39%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 3+ goals
15%
Guangxi Baoyun 1+ goals
59%
Guangxi Baoyun 2+ goals
23%
Guangxi Baoyun 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Shaanxi Changan Athletic (draw refunded)
65%
Guangxi Baoyun (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shaanxi Changan Athletic at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.93 · 56 matches

Guangxi Baoyun away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.25 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic attack 1.46 + Guangxi Baoyun defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.35

Guangxi Baoyun attack 0.86 + Shaanxi Changan Athletic defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Shaanxi Changan Athletic scores more
47%
level
28%
Guangxi Baoyun scores more
25%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Shaanxi Changan Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shaanxi Changan Athletic vs Guangxi Baoyun

Shaanxi Changan Athletic and Guangxi Baoyun drew 1-1 in League One on July 28, 2022.

The match was played at Jiangsu Jiangning Football Training Base in Nanjing.