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Guangxi Baoyun vs Shaanxi Changan Athletic — League One 2018

Guangxi Baoyun
Guangxi Baoyun
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
8/13/2022League OneLeague One · Round 15Jiangning Football Training Base Field No.2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Guangxi Baoyun36%
×Draw28%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangxi Baoyun
1.19
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 57 away

creates per match

Guangxi Baoyun
1.32
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.42

allows per match

Guangxi Baoyun
1.00
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.05

finishing

Guangxi Baoyun+0.00on par
Shaanxi Changan Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangxi Baoyun ↓

Shaanxi Changan Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Guangxi Baoyun or draw
63%
Guangxi Baoyun or Shaanxi Changan Athletic
72%
Draw or Shaanxi Changan Athletic
64%

Winning margin

Guangxi Baoyun wins by 2+
15%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Guangxi Baoyun 1+ goals
70%
Guangxi Baoyun 2+ goals
33%
Guangxi Baoyun 3+ goals
12%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1+ goals
70%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 2+ goals
34%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Guangxi Baoyun (draw refunded)
49%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangxi Baoyun at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.00 · 63 matches

Shaanxi Changan Athletic away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.05 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangxi Baoyun attack 1.32 + Shaanxi Changan Athletic defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.19

Shaanxi Changan Athletic attack 1.42 + Guangxi Baoyun defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Guangxi Baoyun scores more
36%
level
28%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic scores more
37%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Shaanxi Changan Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guangxi Baoyun vs Shaanxi Changan Athletic

Shaanxi Changan Athletic beat Guangxi Baoyun 1-0 in League One on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Jiangning Football Training Base Field No.2 in Nanjing.