Shaanxi Changan Athletic 0–0 Chengdu Better City

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chengdu Better City

9/30/2021

League One · 2nd Phase - 15Jinzhou Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Shaanxi Changan Athletic28%

×Draw25%

Chengdu Better City46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shaanxi Changan AthleticExpected goals in this matchChengdu Better City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.55

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

1.15

Chengdu Better City

1.55

Chengdu Better City creates 35% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 24 away

1.46

creates per match

2.17

0.93

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

1.46

Chengdu Better City

2.17

allows per match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

0.93

Chengdu Better City

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shaanxi Changan Athletic+0.00on par

Chengdu Better City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shaanxi Changan Athletic ↓

Chengdu Better City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Shaanxi Changan Athletic or draw

54%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic or Chengdu Better City

75%

Draw or Chengdu Better City

72%

Winning margin

Shaanxi Changan Athletic wins by 2+

11%

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1+ goals

68%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 2+ goals

32%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 3+ goals

11%

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals

79%

Chengdu Better City 2+ goals

46%

Chengdu Better City 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Shaanxi Changan Athletic (draw refunded)

38%

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shaanxi Changan Athletic at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.93 · 56 matches

Chengdu Better City away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.83 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic attack 1.46 + Chengdu Better City defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.15

Chengdu Better City attack 2.17 + Shaanxi Changan Athletic defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shaanxi Changan Athletic scores more

28%

level

25%

Chengdu Better City scores more

46%

Chengdu Better City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff