Chengdu Better City 3–1 Shaanxi Changan Athletic

Chengdu Better City

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

9/12/2021

League One · 2nd Phase - 11Jinzhou Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Chengdu Better City45%

×Draw26%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chengdu Better CityExpected goals in this matchShaanxi Changan Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.15

Chengdu Better City

1.50

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

1.15

Chengdu Better City creates 30% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 57 away

1.96

creates per match

1.42

0.88

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Chengdu Better City

1.96

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

1.42

allows per match

Chengdu Better City

0.88

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chengdu Better City+0.00on par

Shaanxi Changan Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chengdu Better City ↓

Shaanxi Changan Athletic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Chengdu Better City or draw

71%

Chengdu Better City or Shaanxi Changan Athletic

74%

Draw or Shaanxi Changan Athletic

55%

Winning margin

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+

22%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals

78%

Chengdu Better City 2+ goals

44%

Chengdu Better City 3+ goals

19%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1+ goals

68%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 2+ goals

32%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)

61%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chengdu Better City at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.88 · 25 matches

Shaanxi Changan Athletic away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.05 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chengdu Better City attack 1.96 + Shaanxi Changan Athletic defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.50

Shaanxi Changan Athletic attack 1.42 + Chengdu Better City defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chengdu Better City scores more

45%

level

26%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic scores more

29%

Chengdu Better City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff