Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SG Wattenscheid 09 vs Holzwickeder SC — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

SG Wattenscheid 09
SG Wattenscheid 09
CANC
13:00
Holzwickeder SC
Holzwickeder SC
5/30/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 39Lohrheidestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

SG Wattenscheid 0943%
×Draw24%
Holzwickeder SC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SG Wattenscheid 09
1.66
Holzwickeder SC
1.42

SG Wattenscheid 09 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 18 away

creates per match

SG Wattenscheid 09
1.65
Holzwickeder SC
1.72

allows per match

SG Wattenscheid 09
1.11
Holzwickeder SC
1.67

finishing

SG Wattenscheid 09+0.00on par
Holzwickeder SC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SG Wattenscheid 09 ↓

Holzwickeder SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

SG Wattenscheid 09 or draw
67%
SG Wattenscheid 09 or Holzwickeder SC
76%
Draw or Holzwickeder SC
57%

Winning margin

SG Wattenscheid 09 wins by 2+
22%
Holzwickeder SC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SG Wattenscheid 09 1+ goals
81%
SG Wattenscheid 09 2+ goals
49%
SG Wattenscheid 09 3+ goals
23%
Holzwickeder SC 1+ goals
76%
Holzwickeder SC 2+ goals
41%
Holzwickeder SC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

SG Wattenscheid 09 (draw refunded)
57%
Holzwickeder SC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SG Wattenscheid 09 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.11 · 72 matches

Holzwickeder SC away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SG Wattenscheid 09 attack 1.65 + Holzwickeder SC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.66

Holzwickeder SC attack 1.72 + SG Wattenscheid 09 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SG Wattenscheid 09 scores more
43%
level
24%
Holzwickeder SC scores more
33%

SG Wattenscheid 09 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SG Wattenscheid 09 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SG Wattenscheid 09 vs Holzwickeder SC — Match Preview

SG Wattenscheid 09 face Holzwickeder SC on May 30, 2021 in this Oberliga - Westfalen fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

SG Wattenscheid 09 host Holzwickeder SC at Lohrheidestadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.