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Holzwickeder SC vs SG Wattenscheid 09 — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Holzwickeder SC
Holzwickeder SC
FT
1 – 3
SG Wattenscheid 09
SG Wattenscheid 09
9/19/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 4Montanhydraulik-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Holzwickeder SC28%
×Draw21%
SG Wattenscheid 0950%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holzwickeder SC
1.54
SG Wattenscheid 09
2.10

SG Wattenscheid 09 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 70 away

creates per match

Holzwickeder SC
1.56
SG Wattenscheid 09
1.76

allows per match

Holzwickeder SC
2.44
SG Wattenscheid 09
1.51

finishing

Holzwickeder SC+0.00on par
SG Wattenscheid 09+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holzwickeder SC ↓

SG Wattenscheid 09 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Holzwickeder SC or draw
50%
Holzwickeder SC or SG Wattenscheid 09
79%
Draw or SG Wattenscheid 09
72%

Winning margin

Holzwickeder SC wins by 2+
13%
SG Wattenscheid 09 wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Holzwickeder SC 1+ goals
79%
Holzwickeder SC 2+ goals
45%
Holzwickeder SC 3+ goals
20%
SG Wattenscheid 09 1+ goals
88%
SG Wattenscheid 09 2+ goals
62%
SG Wattenscheid 09 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Holzwickeder SC (draw refunded)
36%
SG Wattenscheid 09 (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holzwickeder SC at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.44 · 18 matches

SG Wattenscheid 09 away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.51 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holzwickeder SC attack 1.56 + SG Wattenscheid 09 defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.54

SG Wattenscheid 09 attack 1.76 + Holzwickeder SC defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Holzwickeder SC scores more
28%
level
21%
SG Wattenscheid 09 scores more
50%

SG Wattenscheid 09 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "SG Wattenscheid 09 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Holzwickeder SC 1–3 SG Wattenscheid 09

SG Wattenscheid 09 beat Holzwickeder SC 3-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on September 19, 2021.

The match was played at Montanhydraulik-Stadion in Holzwickede.