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SG Wattenscheid 09 vs Concordia Wiemelhausen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

SG Wattenscheid 09
SG Wattenscheid 09
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Concordia Wiemelhausen
Concordia Wiemelhausen
N. Buckmaier 89'
R. Nnaji 54', 5'
D. Duran 37'
3/28/2025Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 28Sportzentrum Berliner Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

SG Wattenscheid 0966%
×Draw18%
Concordia Wiemelhausen16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SG Wattenscheid 09
2.54
Concordia Wiemelhausen
1.20

SG Wattenscheid 09 creates 112% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 18 away

creates per match

SG Wattenscheid 09
1.65
Concordia Wiemelhausen
1.28

allows per match

SG Wattenscheid 09
1.11
Concordia Wiemelhausen
3.44

finishing

SG Wattenscheid 09+0.00on par
Concordia Wiemelhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SG Wattenscheid 09 ↓

Concordia Wiemelhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

SG Wattenscheid 09 or draw
84%
SG Wattenscheid 09 or Concordia Wiemelhausen
82%
Draw or Concordia Wiemelhausen
34%

Winning margin

SG Wattenscheid 09 wins by 2+
44%
Concordia Wiemelhausen wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

SG Wattenscheid 09 1+ goals
92%
SG Wattenscheid 09 2+ goals
72%
SG Wattenscheid 09 3+ goals
46%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 1+ goals
70%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 2+ goals
34%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

SG Wattenscheid 09 (draw refunded)
80%
Concordia Wiemelhausen (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SG Wattenscheid 09 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.11 · 72 matches

Concordia Wiemelhausen away — creates 1.28, concedes 3.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SG Wattenscheid 09 attack 1.65 + Concordia Wiemelhausen defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.54

Concordia Wiemelhausen attack 1.28 + SG Wattenscheid 09 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

SG Wattenscheid 09 scores more
66%
level
18%
Concordia Wiemelhausen scores more
16%

SG Wattenscheid 09 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "SG Wattenscheid 09 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
R. Nnaji
37'
D. Duran
54'
R. Nnaji
89'
N. Buckmaier

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: SG Wattenscheid 09 4–0 Concordia Wiemelhausen

SG Wattenscheid 09 beat Concordia Wiemelhausen 4-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on March 28, 2025.

Goals: R. Nnaji (5', 54'), D. Duran (37'), N. Buckmaier (89').

The match was played at Sportzentrum Berliner Straße in Bochum.