Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Concordia Wiemelhausen vs SG Wattenscheid 09 — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Concordia Wiemelhausen
Concordia Wiemelhausen
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
SG Wattenscheid 09
SG Wattenscheid 09
N. Ruppert 57'
J. El Mansoury 60'
H. Kouonang 55'
T. Sindermann 22'
10/6/2024Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 9Sportpark Concordia Wiemelhausen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Concordia Wiemelhausen33%
×Draw21%
SG Wattenscheid 0946%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concordia Wiemelhausen
1.78
SG Wattenscheid 09
2.12

SG Wattenscheid 09 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 70 away

creates per match

Concordia Wiemelhausen
2.05
SG Wattenscheid 09
1.76

allows per match

Concordia Wiemelhausen
2.47
SG Wattenscheid 09
1.51

finishing

Concordia Wiemelhausen+0.00on par
SG Wattenscheid 09+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia Wiemelhausen ↓

SG Wattenscheid 09 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Concordia Wiemelhausen or draw
54%
Concordia Wiemelhausen or SG Wattenscheid 09
79%
Draw or SG Wattenscheid 09
67%

Winning margin

Concordia Wiemelhausen wins by 2+
17%
SG Wattenscheid 09 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Concordia Wiemelhausen 1+ goals
83%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 2+ goals
53%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 3+ goals
26%
SG Wattenscheid 09 1+ goals
88%
SG Wattenscheid 09 2+ goals
62%
SG Wattenscheid 09 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Concordia Wiemelhausen (draw refunded)
42%
SG Wattenscheid 09 (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia Wiemelhausen at home — creates 2.05, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

SG Wattenscheid 09 away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.51 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia Wiemelhausen attack 2.05 + SG Wattenscheid 09 defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.78

SG Wattenscheid 09 attack 1.76 + Concordia Wiemelhausen defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Concordia Wiemelhausen scores more
33%
level
21%
SG Wattenscheid 09 scores more
46%

SG Wattenscheid 09 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SG Wattenscheid 09 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
T. Sindermann
55'
H. Kouonang
57'
N. Ruppert
60'
J. El Mansoury

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Concordia Wiemelhausen 1–3 SG Wattenscheid 09

SG Wattenscheid 09 beat Concordia Wiemelhausen 3-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on October 6, 2024.

Goals: T. Sindermann (22'), H. Kouonang (55'), N. Ruppert (57'), J. El Mansoury (60').

The match was played at Sportpark Concordia Wiemelhausen in Bochum.