SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 0–3 Stuttgarter Kickers

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Stuttgarter Kickers

10/28/2022

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 15WIRmachenDRUCK Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach35%

×Draw23%

Stuttgarter Kickers43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SG Sonnenhof GrossaspachExpected goals in this matchStuttgarter Kickers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.81

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

1.61

Stuttgarter Kickers

1.81

Stuttgarter Kickers creates 12% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 43 away

2.65

creates per match

2.95

0.67

allows per match

0.58

creates per match

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

2.65

Stuttgarter Kickers

2.95

allows per match

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

0.67

Stuttgarter Kickers

0.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach+0.00on par

Stuttgarter Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach ↓

Stuttgarter Kickers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach or draw

57%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach or Stuttgarter Kickers

77%

Draw or Stuttgarter Kickers

65%

Winning margin

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach wins by 2+

17%

Stuttgarter Kickers wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1+ goals

80%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2+ goals

48%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 3+ goals

22%

Stuttgarter Kickers 1+ goals

84%

Stuttgarter Kickers 2+ goals

54%

Stuttgarter Kickers 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach (draw refunded)

45%

Stuttgarter Kickers (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at home — creates 2.65, concedes 0.67 · 51 matches

Stuttgarter Kickers away — creates 2.95, concedes 0.58 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach attack 2.65 + Stuttgarter Kickers defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.61

Stuttgarter Kickers attack 2.95 + SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach scores more

35%

level

23%

Stuttgarter Kickers scores more

43%

Stuttgarter Kickers at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stuttgarter Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff