SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 6–0 Offenburger FV

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

FT

6 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Offenburger FV

8/13/2023

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 2WIRmachenDRUCK Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach79%

×Draw13%

Offenburger FV8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SG Sonnenhof GrossaspachExpected goals in this matchOffenburger FV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.84

0.80

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

2.84

Offenburger FV

0.80

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach creates 255% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

2.65

creates per match

0.94

0.67

allows per match

3.03

creates per match

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

2.65

Offenburger FV

0.94

allows per match

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

0.67

Offenburger FV

3.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach+0.00on par

Offenburger FV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach ↓

Offenburger FV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach or draw

92%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach or Offenburger FV

87%

Draw or Offenburger FV

21%

Winning margin

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach wins by 2+

58%

Offenburger FV wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1+ goals

94%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2+ goals

77%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 3+ goals

53%

Offenburger FV 1+ goals

55%

Offenburger FV 2+ goals

19%

Offenburger FV 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach (draw refunded)

91%

Offenburger FV (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at home — creates 2.65, concedes 0.67 · 51 matches

Offenburger FV away — creates 0.94, concedes 3.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach attack 2.65 + Offenburger FV defence 3.03 → ÷2 → 2.84

Offenburger FV attack 0.94 + SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach scores more

79%

level

13%

Offenburger FV scores more

8%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff