Offenburger FV 1–5 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

Offenburger FV

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 1

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

11/25/2023

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 19Karl-Heitz-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Offenburger FV22%

×Draw20%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Offenburger FVExpected goals in this matchSG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

2.27

Offenburger FV

1.35

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

2.27

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach creates 68% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

1.50

creates per match

2.29

2.26

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Offenburger FV

1.50

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

2.29

allows per match

Offenburger FV

2.26

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Offenburger FV+0.00on par

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Offenburger FV ↓

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Offenburger FV or draw

42%

Offenburger FV or SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

80%

Draw or SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

78%

Winning margin

Offenburger FV wins by 2+

9%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Offenburger FV 1+ goals

74%

Offenburger FV 2+ goals

39%

Offenburger FV 3+ goals

15%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1+ goals

90%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2+ goals

66%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Offenburger FV (draw refunded)

28%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Offenburger FV at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.26 · 34 matches

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.20 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Offenburger FV attack 1.50 + SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.35

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach attack 2.29 + Offenburger FV defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Offenburger FV scores more

22%

level

20%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach scores more

58%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff