SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2–0 Normannia Gmünd

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Normannia Gmünd

5/18/2024

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 33WIRmachenDRUCK Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach64%

×Draw20%

Normannia Gmünd16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SG Sonnenhof GrossaspachExpected goals in this matchNormannia Gmünd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.00

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

2.19

Normannia Gmünd

1.00

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach creates 119% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

2.65

creates per match

1.33

0.67

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

2.65

Normannia Gmünd

1.33

allows per match

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

0.67

Normannia Gmünd

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach+0.00on par

Normannia Gmünd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach ↓

Normannia Gmünd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach or draw

84%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach or Normannia Gmünd

80%

Draw or Normannia Gmünd

36%

Winning margin

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach wins by 2+

41%

Normannia Gmünd wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1+ goals

89%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2+ goals

64%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 3+ goals

37%

Normannia Gmünd 1+ goals

63%

Normannia Gmünd 2+ goals

26%

Normannia Gmünd 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach (draw refunded)

80%

Normannia Gmünd (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at home — creates 2.65, concedes 0.67 · 51 matches

Normannia Gmünd away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach attack 2.65 + Normannia Gmünd defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.19

Normannia Gmünd attack 1.33 + SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach scores more

64%

level

20%

Normannia Gmünd scores more

16%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff