Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Normannia Gmünd vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Normannia Gmünd
Normannia Gmünd
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
9/4/2024Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 6Jahnstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Normannia Gmünd32%
×Draw23%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Normannia Gmünd
1.51
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
1.84

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach creates 22% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Normannia Gmünd
1.82
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
2.29

allows per match

Normannia Gmünd
1.39
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
1.20

finishing

Normannia Gmünd+0.00on par
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Normannia Gmünd ↓

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Normannia Gmünd or draw
54%
Normannia Gmünd or SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
77%
Draw or SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
68%

Winning margin

Normannia Gmünd wins by 2+
15%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Normannia Gmünd 1+ goals
78%
Normannia Gmünd 2+ goals
44%
Normannia Gmünd 3+ goals
19%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1+ goals
84%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2+ goals
55%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Normannia Gmünd (draw refunded)
41%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Normannia Gmünd at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.39 · 51 matches

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.20 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Normannia Gmünd attack 1.82 + SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.51

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach attack 2.29 + Normannia Gmünd defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Normannia Gmünd scores more
32%
level
23%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach scores more
46%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Normannia Gmünd vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach beat Normannia Gmünd 2-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on September 4, 2024.

The match was played at Jahnstadion in Schwäbisch Gmünd.