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SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Fellbach — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
FT
6 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
Fellbach
Fellbach
M. Tasdelen 70'
N. Mohr 45'
F. Eisele 19', 11', 9', 4'
10/20/2024Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 13WIRmachenDRUCK Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach74%
×Draw15%
Fellbach11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
2.71
Fellbach
0.96

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach creates 182% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
2.65
Fellbach
1.24

allows per match

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
0.67
Fellbach
2.76

finishing

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach+0.00on par
Fellbach+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach ↓

Fellbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach or draw
89%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach or Fellbach
85%
Draw or Fellbach
26%

Winning margin

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach wins by 2+
52%
Fellbach wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1+ goals
93%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2+ goals
75%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 3+ goals
50%
Fellbach 1+ goals
62%
Fellbach 2+ goals
25%
Fellbach 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach (draw refunded)
87%
Fellbach (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at home — creates 2.65, concedes 0.67 · 51 matches

Fellbach away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach attack 2.65 + Fellbach defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.71

Fellbach attack 1.24 + SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach scores more
74%
level
15%
Fellbach scores more
11%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
F. Eisele
9'
F. Eisele
11'
F. Eisele
19'
F. Eisele
45'
N. Mohr
70'
M. Tasdelen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Fellbach

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach beat Fellbach 6-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on October 20, 2024.

Goals: F. Eisele (4', 9', 11', 19'), N. Mohr (45'), M. Tasdelen (70').

The match was played at WIRmachenDRUCK Arena in Aspach.