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Fellbach vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Fellbach
Fellbach
FT
3 – 2
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
7/12/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Kunstrasen Unterweissach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Fellbach13%
×Draw13%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach74%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fellbach
1.67
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
3.83

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach creates 129% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Fellbach
1.50
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
4.67

allows per match

Fellbach
3.00
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
1.83

finishing

Fellbach+0.00on par
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fellbach ↓

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–23%
0–34%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–37%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–25%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–23%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
78%22%4.5
60%40%

Double chance

Fellbach or draw
26%
Fellbach or SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
87%
Draw or SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
87%

Winning margin

Fellbach wins by 2+
6%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

Fellbach 1+ goals
81%
Fellbach 2+ goals
50%
Fellbach 3+ goals
23%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1+ goals
98%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2+ goals
88%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 3+ goals
71%

Draw no bet

Fellbach (draw refunded)
15%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fellbach at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach away — creates 4.67, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fellbach attack 1.50 + SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.67

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach attack 4.67 + Fellbach defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Fellbach scores more
13%
level
13%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach scores more
74%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fellbach vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

Fellbach beat SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 12, 2022.

The match was played at Kunstrasen Unterweissach in Weissach im Tal.