SFS Borac 1–1 Pčinja Trgovište: Result & Stats

SFS Borac

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Pčinja Trgovište

8/21/2022

Srpska Liga - East · East - 2Stadion FK SFS Borac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

SFS Borac55%

×Draw22%

Pčinja Trgovište23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SFS BoracExpected goals in this matchPčinja Trgovište

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.18

SFS Borac

1.96

Pčinja Trgovište

1.18

SFS Borac creates 66% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 63 away

2.05

creates per match

1.11

1.25

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

SFS Borac

2.05

Pčinja Trgovište

1.11

allows per match

SFS Borac

1.25

Pčinja Trgovište

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SFS Borac+0.00on par

Pčinja Trgovište+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SFS Borac ↓

Pčinja Trgovište →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

SFS Borac or draw

77%

SFS Borac or Pčinja Trgovište

78%

Draw or Pčinja Trgovište

45%

Winning margin

SFS Borac wins by 2+

32%

Pčinja Trgovište wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

SFS Borac 1+ goals

86%

SFS Borac 2+ goals

58%

SFS Borac 3+ goals

31%

Pčinja Trgovište 1+ goals

69%

Pčinja Trgovište 2+ goals

33%

Pčinja Trgovište 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

SFS Borac (draw refunded)

71%

Pčinja Trgovište (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SFS Borac at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.25 · 73 matches

Pčinja Trgovište away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.87 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SFS Borac attack 2.05 + Pčinja Trgovište defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.96

Pčinja Trgovište attack 1.11 + SFS Borac defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

SFS Borac scores more

55%

level

22%

Pčinja Trgovište scores more

23%

SFS Borac at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "SFS Borac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: SFS Borac 1–1 Pčinja Trgovište

SFS Borac and Pčinja Trgovište drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - East on August 21, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK SFS Borac in Paraćin.

SFS Borac vs Pčinja Trgovište — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Srpska Liga - East: SFS Borac 1–1 Pčinja Trgovište