Pčinja Trgovište 3–1 SFS Borac: Result & Stats

Pčinja Trgovište

FT

3 – 1

SFS Borac

5/19/2021

Srpska Liga - East · East - 35Stadion Trgovište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Pčinja Trgovište52%

×Draw23%

SFS Borac25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pčinja TrgovišteExpected goals in this matchSFS Borac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.16

Pčinja Trgovište

1.80

SFS Borac

1.16

Pčinja Trgovište creates 55% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 72 away

2.03

creates per match

1.10

1.22

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Pčinja Trgovište

2.03

SFS Borac

1.10

allows per match

Pčinja Trgovište

1.22

SFS Borac

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pčinja Trgovište+0.00on par

SFS Borac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pčinja Trgovište ↓

SFS Borac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Pčinja Trgovište or draw

75%

Pčinja Trgovište or SFS Borac

77%

Draw or SFS Borac

48%

Winning margin

Pčinja Trgovište wins by 2+

29%

SFS Borac wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Pčinja Trgovište 1+ goals

83%

Pčinja Trgovište 2+ goals

54%

Pčinja Trgovište 3+ goals

27%

SFS Borac 1+ goals

69%

SFS Borac 2+ goals

32%

SFS Borac 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Pčinja Trgovište (draw refunded)

68%

SFS Borac (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pčinja Trgovište at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.22 · 64 matches

SFS Borac away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pčinja Trgovište attack 2.03 + SFS Borac defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.80

SFS Borac attack 1.10 + Pčinja Trgovište defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Pčinja Trgovište scores more

52%

level

23%

SFS Borac scores more

25%

Pčinja Trgovište at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Pčinja Trgovište will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff