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SFS Borac vs Meševo — Srpska Liga - East 2019

SFS Borac
SFS Borac
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Meševo
Meševo
9/4/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 4Stadion FK SFS Borac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

SFS Borac56%
×Draw22%
Meševo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SFS Borac
1.94
Meševo
1.15

SFS Borac creates 69% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 45 away

creates per match

SFS Borac
2.05
Meševo
1.04

allows per match

SFS Borac
1.25
Meševo
1.82

finishing

SFS Borac+0.00on par
Meševo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SFS Borac ↓

Meševo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

SFS Borac or draw
78%
SFS Borac or Meševo
78%
Draw or Meševo
44%

Winning margin

SFS Borac wins by 2+
32%
Meševo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

SFS Borac 1+ goals
86%
SFS Borac 2+ goals
58%
SFS Borac 3+ goals
30%
Meševo 1+ goals
68%
Meševo 2+ goals
32%
Meševo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SFS Borac (draw refunded)
71%
Meševo (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SFS Borac at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.25 · 73 matches

Meševo away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SFS Borac attack 2.05 + Meševo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.94

Meševo attack 1.04 + SFS Borac defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

SFS Borac scores more
56%
level
22%
Meševo scores more
22%

SFS Borac at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "SFS Borac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SFS Borac vs Meševo

SFS Borac beat Meševo 2-0 in Srpska Liga - East on September 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK SFS Borac in Paraćin.