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Meševo vs SFS Borac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Meševo
Meševo
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
SFS Borac
SFS Borac
3/25/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 19Stadion FK Meševo Doljane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Meševo53%
×Draw23%
SFS Borac23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meševo
1.79
SFS Borac
1.10

Meševo creates 63% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 72 away

creates per match

Meševo
2.00
SFS Borac
1.10

allows per match

Meševo
1.11
SFS Borac
1.58

finishing

Meševo+0.00on par
SFS Borac+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meševo ↓

SFS Borac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Meševo or draw
77%
Meševo or SFS Borac
77%
Draw or SFS Borac
47%

Winning margin

Meševo wins by 2+
30%
SFS Borac wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Meševo 1+ goals
83%
Meševo 2+ goals
53%
Meševo 3+ goals
26%
SFS Borac 1+ goals
67%
SFS Borac 2+ goals
30%
SFS Borac 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Meševo (draw refunded)
70%
SFS Borac (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meševo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.11 · 44 matches

SFS Borac away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meševo attack 2.00 + SFS Borac defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.79

SFS Borac attack 1.10 + Meševo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Meševo scores more
53%
level
23%
SFS Borac scores more
23%

Meševo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Meševo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Meševo 3–1 SFS Borac

Meševo beat SFS Borac 3-1 in Srpska Liga - East on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Meševo Doljane in Meševo.