Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SFS Borac vs Djerdap Kladovo — Srpska Liga - East 2019

SFS Borac
SFS Borac
FT
6 – 4
Djerdap Kladovo
Djerdap Kladovo
4/21/2024Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 23Stadion FK SFS Borac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

SFS Borac58%
×Draw21%
Djerdap Kladovo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SFS Borac
2.10
Djerdap Kladovo
1.21

SFS Borac creates 74% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 44 away

creates per match

SFS Borac
2.05
Djerdap Kladovo
1.18

allows per match

SFS Borac
1.25
Djerdap Kladovo
2.16

finishing

SFS Borac+0.00on par
Djerdap Kladovo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SFS Borac ↓

Djerdap Kladovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

SFS Borac or draw
78%
SFS Borac or Djerdap Kladovo
79%
Draw or Djerdap Kladovo
42%

Winning margin

SFS Borac wins by 2+
35%
Djerdap Kladovo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

SFS Borac 1+ goals
88%
SFS Borac 2+ goals
62%
SFS Borac 3+ goals
35%
Djerdap Kladovo 1+ goals
70%
Djerdap Kladovo 2+ goals
34%
Djerdap Kladovo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

SFS Borac (draw refunded)
73%
Djerdap Kladovo (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SFS Borac at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.25 · 73 matches

Djerdap Kladovo away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.16 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SFS Borac attack 2.05 + Djerdap Kladovo defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.10

Djerdap Kladovo attack 1.18 + SFS Borac defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

SFS Borac scores more
58%
level
21%
Djerdap Kladovo scores more
22%

SFS Borac at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "SFS Borac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SFS Borac vs Djerdap Kladovo

SFS Borac beat Djerdap Kladovo 6-4 in Srpska Liga - East on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK SFS Borac in Paraćin.