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Djerdap Kladovo vs SFS Borac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Djerdap Kladovo
Djerdap Kladovo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
SFS Borac
SFS Borac
10/19/2024Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 11Stadion FK Đerdap

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Djerdap Kladovo48%
×Draw26%
SFS Borac27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djerdap Kladovo
1.50
SFS Borac
1.05

Djerdap Kladovo creates 43% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 72 away

creates per match

Djerdap Kladovo
1.42
SFS Borac
1.10

allows per match

Djerdap Kladovo
1.00
SFS Borac
1.58

finishing

Djerdap Kladovo+0.00on par
SFS Borac+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djerdap Kladovo ↓

SFS Borac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Djerdap Kladovo or draw
73%
Djerdap Kladovo or SFS Borac
74%
Draw or SFS Borac
52%

Winning margin

Djerdap Kladovo wins by 2+
24%
SFS Borac wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Djerdap Kladovo 1+ goals
78%
Djerdap Kladovo 2+ goals
44%
Djerdap Kladovo 3+ goals
19%
SFS Borac 1+ goals
65%
SFS Borac 2+ goals
28%
SFS Borac 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Djerdap Kladovo (draw refunded)
64%
SFS Borac (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djerdap Kladovo at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

SFS Borac away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djerdap Kladovo attack 1.42 + SFS Borac defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.50

SFS Borac attack 1.10 + Djerdap Kladovo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Djerdap Kladovo scores more
48%
level
26%
SFS Borac scores more
27%

Djerdap Kladovo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Djerdap Kladovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Djerdap Kladovo 0–1 SFS Borac

SFS Borac beat Djerdap Kladovo 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Đerdap in Kladovo.