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Sfera U20 vs Elosport U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Sfera U20
Sfera U20
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Elosport U20
Elosport U20
Unknown 79', 70', 59', 16', 13'
4/26/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Amadeu Mosca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sfera U2085%
×Draw10%
Elosport U205%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sfera U20
3.23
Elosport U20
0.69

Sfera U20 creates 368% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 5 away

creates per match

Sfera U20
2.25
Elosport U20
0.20

allows per match

Sfera U20
1.19
Elosport U20
4.20

finishing

Sfera U20+0.00on par
Elosport U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 74Under: 2674%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sfera U20 ↓

Elosport U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Sfera U20 or draw
95%
Sfera U20 or Elosport U20
90%
Draw or Elosport U20
15%

Winning margin

Sfera U20 wins by 2+
67%
Elosport U20 wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Sfera U20 1+ goals
96%
Sfera U20 2+ goals
82%
Sfera U20 3+ goals
61%
Elosport U20 1+ goals
50%
Elosport U20 2+ goals
15%
Elosport U20 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sfera U20 (draw refunded)
94%
Elosport U20 (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sfera U20 at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Elosport U20 away — creates 0.20, concedes 4.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sfera U20 attack 2.25 + Elosport U20 defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 3.23

Elosport U20 attack 0.20 + Sfera U20 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Sfera U20 scores more
85%
level
10%
Elosport U20 scores more
5%

Sfera U20 at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Sfera U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
16'
59'
70'
79'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Sfera U20 5–0 Elosport U20

Sfera U20 beat Elosport U20 5-0 in Paulista - U20 on April 26, 2024.

Goals: ? (13', 16', 59', 70', 79').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Amadeu Mosca in Salto, São Paulo.