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Elosport U20 vs Sfera U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Elosport U20
Elosport U20
FT
0 – 3
Sfera U20
Sfera U20
5/31/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Doutor José Sidney Cunha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Elosport U2016%
×Draw19%
Sfera U2065%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elosport U20
1.08
Sfera U20
2.33

Sfera U20 creates 116% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

creates per match

Elosport U20
0.60
Sfera U20
1.25

allows per match

Elosport U20
3.40
Sfera U20
1.56

finishing

Elosport U20+0.00on par
Sfera U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 66Under: 3466%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elosport U20 ↓

Sfera U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Elosport U20 or draw
35%
Elosport U20 or Sfera U20
81%
Draw or Sfera U20
84%

Winning margin

Elosport U20 wins by 2+
6%
Sfera U20 wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Elosport U20 1+ goals
66%
Elosport U20 2+ goals
29%
Elosport U20 3+ goals
10%
Sfera U20 1+ goals
90%
Sfera U20 2+ goals
67%
Sfera U20 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Elosport U20 (draw refunded)
20%
Sfera U20 (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elosport U20 at home — creates 0.60, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

Sfera U20 away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elosport U20 attack 0.60 + Sfera U20 defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.08

Sfera U20 attack 1.25 + Elosport U20 defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Elosport U20 scores more
16%
level
19%
Sfera U20 scores more
65%

Sfera U20 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Sfera U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Elosport U20 0–3 Sfera U20

Sfera U20 beat Elosport U20 3-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 31, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Doutor José Sidney Cunha in Capão Bonito, São Paulo.