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SFC Minerva vs EDMF Churra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

SFC Minerva
SFC Minerva
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
EDMF Churra
EDMF Churra
2/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 16Campo Municipal El Secante

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

SFC Minerva50%
×Draw25%
EDMF Churra25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SFC Minerva
1.57
EDMF Churra
1.02

SFC Minerva creates 54% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 28 away

creates per match

SFC Minerva
1.22
EDMF Churra
0.96

allows per match

SFC Minerva
1.08
EDMF Churra
1.93

finishing

SFC Minerva+0.00on par
EDMF Churra+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SFC Minerva ↓

EDMF Churra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

SFC Minerva or draw
75%
SFC Minerva or EDMF Churra
75%
Draw or EDMF Churra
50%

Winning margin

SFC Minerva wins by 2+
26%
EDMF Churra wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

SFC Minerva 1+ goals
79%
SFC Minerva 2+ goals
46%
SFC Minerva 3+ goals
21%
EDMF Churra 1+ goals
64%
EDMF Churra 2+ goals
27%
EDMF Churra 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

SFC Minerva (draw refunded)
67%
EDMF Churra (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SFC Minerva at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 63 matches

EDMF Churra away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.93 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SFC Minerva attack 1.22 + EDMF Churra defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.57

EDMF Churra attack 0.96 + SFC Minerva defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

SFC Minerva scores more
50%
level
25%
EDMF Churra scores more
25%

SFC Minerva at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "SFC Minerva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: SFC Minerva 4–0 EDMF Churra

SFC Minerva beat EDMF Churra 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 14, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Municipal El Secante in Alumbres.