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EDMF Churra vs SFC Minerva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

EDMF Churra
EDMF Churra
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
SFC Minerva
SFC Minerva
12/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 5Campo Municipal de la Flota

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

EDMF Churra45%
×Draw27%
SFC Minerva28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EDMF Churra
1.39
SFC Minerva
1.03

EDMF Churra creates 35% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 63 away

creates per match

EDMF Churra
1.10
SFC Minerva
1.03

allows per match

EDMF Churra
1.03
SFC Minerva
1.67

finishing

EDMF Churra+0.00on par
SFC Minerva+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EDMF Churra ↓

SFC Minerva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

EDMF Churra or draw
72%
EDMF Churra or SFC Minerva
73%
Draw or SFC Minerva
55%

Winning margin

EDMF Churra wins by 2+
22%
SFC Minerva wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

EDMF Churra 1+ goals
75%
EDMF Churra 2+ goals
40%
EDMF Churra 3+ goals
16%
SFC Minerva 1+ goals
64%
SFC Minerva 2+ goals
28%
SFC Minerva 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

EDMF Churra (draw refunded)
62%
SFC Minerva (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EDMF Churra at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

SFC Minerva away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.67 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EDMF Churra attack 1.10 + SFC Minerva defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.39

SFC Minerva attack 1.03 + EDMF Churra defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

EDMF Churra scores more
45%
level
27%
SFC Minerva scores more
28%

EDMF Churra at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "EDMF Churra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

EDMF Churra 1 – 0 SFC Minerva

EDMF Churra beat SFC Minerva 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 16, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de la Flota in Murcia.