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SFC Minerva vs Cartagena LU II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

SFC Minerva
SFC Minerva
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cartagena LU II
Cartagena LU II
1/5/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 9Campo Municipal El Secante

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

SFC Minerva40%
×Draw28%
Cartagena LU II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SFC Minerva
1.23
Cartagena LU II
1.06

SFC Minerva creates 16% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 51 away

creates per match

SFC Minerva
1.22
Cartagena LU II
1.04

allows per match

SFC Minerva
1.08
Cartagena LU II
1.25

finishing

SFC Minerva+0.00on par
Cartagena LU II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SFC Minerva ↓

Cartagena LU II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

SFC Minerva or draw
68%
SFC Minerva or Cartagena LU II
72%
Draw or Cartagena LU II
60%

Winning margin

SFC Minerva wins by 2+
17%
Cartagena LU II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

SFC Minerva 1+ goals
71%
SFC Minerva 2+ goals
35%
SFC Minerva 3+ goals
13%
Cartagena LU II 1+ goals
65%
Cartagena LU II 2+ goals
29%
Cartagena LU II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

SFC Minerva (draw refunded)
56%
Cartagena LU II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SFC Minerva at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 63 matches

Cartagena LU II away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SFC Minerva attack 1.22 + Cartagena LU II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Cartagena LU II attack 1.04 + SFC Minerva defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SFC Minerva scores more
40%
level
28%
Cartagena LU II scores more
32%

SFC Minerva at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SFC Minerva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SFC Minerva vs Cartagena LU II

SFC Minerva beat Cartagena LU II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 5, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Municipal El Secante in Alumbres.