Cartagena LU II 3–0 SFC Minerva: Result & Stats

Cartagena LU II

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

SFC Minerva

3/7/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 25Escuela de Fútbol Ciudad Jardín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Cartagena LU II51%

×Draw25%

SFC Minerva24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cartagena LU IIExpected goals in this matchSFC Minerva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.00

Cartagena LU II

1.57

SFC Minerva

1.00

Cartagena LU II creates 57% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 63 away

1.47

creates per match

1.03

0.98

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Cartagena LU II

1.47

SFC Minerva

1.03

allows per match

Cartagena LU II

0.98

SFC Minerva

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cartagena LU II+0.00on par

SFC Minerva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena LU II ↓

SFC Minerva →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cartagena LU II or draw

76%

Cartagena LU II or SFC Minerva

75%

Draw or SFC Minerva

49%

Winning margin

Cartagena LU II wins by 2+

26%

SFC Minerva wins by 2+

Team goals

Cartagena LU II 1+ goals

79%

Cartagena LU II 2+ goals

46%

Cartagena LU II 3+ goals

21%

SFC Minerva 1+ goals

63%

SFC Minerva 2+ goals

26%

SFC Minerva 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Cartagena LU II (draw refunded)

68%

SFC Minerva (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cartagena LU II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.98 · 51 matches

SFC Minerva away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.67 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena LU II attack 1.47 + SFC Minerva defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.57

SFC Minerva attack 1.03 + Cartagena LU II defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cartagena LU II scores more

51%

level

25%

SFC Minerva scores more

24%

Cartagena LU II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cartagena LU II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Cartagena LU II 3–0 SFC Minerva

Cartagena LU II beat SFC Minerva 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 7, 2026.

The match was played at Escuela de Fútbol Ciudad Jardín in Cartagena.

Cartagena LU II vs SFC Minerva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Cartagena LU II 3–0 SFC Minerva