SFC Minerva 0–1 Bullense: Result & Stats

SFC Minerva

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bullense

1/31/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 14Campo Municipal El Secante

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

SFC Minerva55%

×Draw24%

Bullense21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SFC MinervaExpected goals in this matchBullense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.93

SFC Minerva

1.67

Bullense

0.93

SFC Minerva creates 80% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 79 away

1.22

creates per match

0.78

1.08

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

SFC Minerva

1.22

Bullense

0.78

allows per match

SFC Minerva

1.08

Bullense

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SFC Minerva+0.00on par

Bullense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SFC Minerva ↓

Bullense →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

SFC Minerva or draw

79%

SFC Minerva or Bullense

76%

Draw or Bullense

45%

Winning margin

SFC Minerva wins by 2+

30%

Bullense wins by 2+

Team goals

SFC Minerva 1+ goals

81%

SFC Minerva 2+ goals

50%

SFC Minerva 3+ goals

23%

Bullense 1+ goals

61%

Bullense 2+ goals

24%

Bullense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

SFC Minerva (draw refunded)

72%

Bullense (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

SFC Minerva at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 63 matches

Bullense away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.13 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

SFC Minerva attack 1.22 + Bullense defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.67

Bullense attack 0.78 + SFC Minerva defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

SFC Minerva scores more

55%

level

24%

Bullense scores more

21%

SFC Minerva at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "SFC Minerva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff