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Bullense vs SFC Minerva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Bullense
Bullense
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
SFC Minerva
SFC Minerva
11/1/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 3Estadio Nicolás de las Peñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Bullense42%
×Draw26%
SFC Minerva32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bullense
1.42
SFC Minerva
1.19

Bullense creates 19% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 63 away

creates per match

Bullense
1.18
SFC Minerva
1.03

allows per match

Bullense
1.35
SFC Minerva
1.67

finishing

Bullense+0.00on par
SFC Minerva+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bullense ↓

SFC Minerva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bullense or draw
68%
Bullense or SFC Minerva
74%
Draw or SFC Minerva
58%

Winning margin

Bullense wins by 2+
20%
SFC Minerva wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bullense 1+ goals
76%
Bullense 2+ goals
41%
Bullense 3+ goals
17%
SFC Minerva 1+ goals
70%
SFC Minerva 2+ goals
33%
SFC Minerva 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bullense (draw refunded)
57%
SFC Minerva (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bullense at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.35 · 79 matches

SFC Minerva away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.67 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bullense attack 1.18 + SFC Minerva defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

SFC Minerva attack 1.03 + Bullense defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bullense scores more
42%
level
26%
SFC Minerva scores more
32%

Bullense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bullense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bullense vs SFC Minerva

Bullense and SFC Minerva drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Nicolás de las Peñas in Bullas.