SfB-Oure 1–4 Middelfart: Result & Stats

SfB-Oure

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Middelfart

9/17/2022

3. Division · Round 7Fynske Bank Arena Høje Bøge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

SfB-Oure20%

×Draw23%

Middelfart57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SfB-OureExpected goals in this matchMiddelfart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.83

SfB-Oure

1.00

Middelfart

1.83

Middelfart creates 83% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 16 away

1.44

creates per match

2.19

1.47

allows per match

0.56

creates per match

SfB-Oure

1.44

Middelfart

2.19

allows per match

SfB-Oure

1.47

Middelfart

0.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SfB-Oure+0.00on par

Middelfart+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SfB-Oure ↓

Middelfart →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

SfB-Oure or draw

43%

SfB-Oure or Middelfart

77%

Draw or Middelfart

80%

Winning margin

SfB-Oure wins by 2+

7%

Middelfart wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

SfB-Oure 1+ goals

63%

SfB-Oure 2+ goals

26%

SfB-Oure 3+ goals

8%

Middelfart 1+ goals

84%

Middelfart 2+ goals

54%

Middelfart 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

SfB-Oure (draw refunded)

26%

Middelfart (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SfB-Oure at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.47 · 32 matches

Middelfart away — creates 2.19, concedes 0.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SfB-Oure attack 1.44 + Middelfart defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.00

Middelfart attack 2.19 + SfB-Oure defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

SfB-Oure scores more

20%

level

23%

Middelfart scores more

57%

Middelfart at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Middelfart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff