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Middelfart vs SfB-Oure — 3. Division 2021

Middelfart
Middelfart
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
SfB-Oure
SfB-Oure
3/25/20233. Division3. Division · Round 19MG & BK.s anlæg - kunstgræsbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Middelfart61%
×Draw21%
SfB-Oure18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middelfart
2.03
SfB-Oure
0.98

Middelfart creates 107% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 32 away

creates per match

Middelfart
1.56
SfB-Oure
1.28

allows per match

Middelfart
0.69
SfB-Oure
2.50

finishing

Middelfart+0.00on par
SfB-Oure+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middelfart ↓

SfB-Oure →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Middelfart or draw
82%
Middelfart or SfB-Oure
79%
Draw or SfB-Oure
39%

Winning margin

Middelfart wins by 2+
38%
SfB-Oure wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Middelfart 1+ goals
87%
Middelfart 2+ goals
60%
Middelfart 3+ goals
33%
SfB-Oure 1+ goals
62%
SfB-Oure 2+ goals
26%
SfB-Oure 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Middelfart (draw refunded)
78%
SfB-Oure (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middelfart at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.69 · 16 matches

SfB-Oure away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middelfart attack 1.56 + SfB-Oure defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.03

SfB-Oure attack 1.28 + Middelfart defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Middelfart scores more
61%
level
21%
SfB-Oure scores more
18%

Middelfart at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Middelfart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Middelfart vs SfB-Oure

Middelfart beat SfB-Oure 3-0 in 3. Division on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at MG & BK.s anlæg - kunstgræsbane in Middelfart.