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Sfax Railways vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer — Ligue 2 2020

Sfax Railways
Sfax Railways
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
3/15/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 19Stade d'Athlétisme 2 Mars 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Sfax Railways43%
×Draw29%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sfax Railways
1.25
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
0.96

Sfax Railways creates 30% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 27 away

creates per match

Sfax Railways
1.30
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
1.26

allows per match

Sfax Railways
0.65
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
1.19

finishing

Sfax Railways+0.00on par
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sfax Railways ↓

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sfax Railways or draw
72%
Sfax Railways or Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
71%
Draw or Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
57%

Winning margin

Sfax Railways wins by 2+
19%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sfax Railways 1+ goals
71%
Sfax Railways 2+ goals
36%
Sfax Railways 3+ goals
13%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1+ goals
62%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 2+ goals
25%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sfax Railways (draw refunded)
60%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sfax Railways at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.65 · 37 matches

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sfax Railways attack 1.30 + Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer attack 1.26 + Sfax Railways defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sfax Railways scores more
43%
level
29%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer scores more
28%

Sfax Railways at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sfax Railways will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sfax Railways vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

Sfax Railways beat Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 2-0 in Ligue 2 on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Stade d'Athlétisme 2 Mars 2 in Safāqis.