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Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs Sfax Railways — Ligue 2 2020

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sfax Railways
Sfax Railways
11/24/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 6Stade Municipal Sakiet Eddaier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer61%
×Draw24%
Sfax Railways15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
1.63
Sfax Railways
0.66

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer creates 147% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 37 away

creates per match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
2.12
Sfax Railways
0.97

allows per match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
0.35
Sfax Railways
1.14

finishing

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer+0.00on par
Sfax Railways+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer ↓

Sfax Railways →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer or draw
85%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer or Sfax Railways
76%
Draw or Sfax Railways
39%

Winning margin

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer wins by 2+
34%
Sfax Railways wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1+ goals
80%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 2+ goals
48%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 3+ goals
22%
Sfax Railways 1+ goals
48%
Sfax Railways 2+ goals
14%
Sfax Railways 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer (draw refunded)
80%
Sfax Railways (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.35 · 26 matches

Sfax Railways away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.14 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer attack 2.12 + Sfax Railways defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.63

Sfax Railways attack 0.97 + Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer scores more
61%
level
24%
Sfax Railways scores more
15%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs Sfax Railways

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer beat Sfax Railways 1-0 in Ligue 2 on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Sakiet Eddaier in Sakiet Eddaïer.