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Sfax Railways vs Menzel Bourguiba — Ligue 2 2020

Sfax Railways
Sfax Railways
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Menzel Bourguiba
Menzel Bourguiba
M. Belgacem 45'
H. Amri 34'
N. Laabidi 59'
2/16/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sfax Railways65%
×Draw25%
Menzel Bourguiba11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sfax Railways
1.56
Menzel Bourguiba
0.46

Sfax Railways creates 239% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 26 away

creates per match

Sfax Railways
1.30
Menzel Bourguiba
0.27

allows per match

Sfax Railways
0.65
Menzel Bourguiba
1.81

finishing

Sfax Railways+0.00on par
Menzel Bourguiba+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sfax Railways ↓

Menzel Bourguiba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sfax Railways or draw
89%
Sfax Railways or Menzel Bourguiba
75%
Draw or Menzel Bourguiba
35%

Winning margin

Sfax Railways wins by 2+
36%
Menzel Bourguiba wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Sfax Railways 1+ goals
79%
Sfax Railways 2+ goals
46%
Sfax Railways 3+ goals
21%
Menzel Bourguiba 1+ goals
37%
Menzel Bourguiba 2+ goals
8%
Menzel Bourguiba 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Sfax Railways (draw refunded)
86%
Menzel Bourguiba (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sfax Railways at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.65 · 37 matches

Menzel Bourguiba away — creates 0.27, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sfax Railways attack 1.30 + Menzel Bourguiba defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.56

Menzel Bourguiba attack 0.27 + Sfax Railways defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Sfax Railways scores more
65%
level
25%
Menzel Bourguiba scores more
11%

Sfax Railways at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Sfax Railways will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
H. Amri
45'
M. Belgacem
59'
N. Laabidi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sfax Railways vs Menzel Bourguiba

Sfax Railways beat Menzel Bourguiba 2-1 in Ligue 2 on February 16, 2026.

Goals: H. Amri (34'), M. Belgacem (45'), N. Laabidi (59').