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Menzel Bourguiba vs Sfax Railways — Ligue 2 2020

Menzel Bourguiba
Menzel Bourguiba
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sfax Railways
Sfax Railways
10/11/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Menzel Bourguiba39%
×Draw31%
Sfax Railways30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Menzel Bourguiba
1.07
Sfax Railways
0.91

Menzel Bourguiba creates 18% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 37 away

creates per match

Menzel Bourguiba
1.00
Sfax Railways
0.97

allows per match

Menzel Bourguiba
0.85
Sfax Railways
1.14

finishing

Menzel Bourguiba+0.00on par
Sfax Railways+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Menzel Bourguiba ↓

Sfax Railways →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Menzel Bourguiba or draw
70%
Menzel Bourguiba or Sfax Railways
69%
Draw or Sfax Railways
61%

Winning margin

Menzel Bourguiba wins by 2+
16%
Sfax Railways wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Menzel Bourguiba 1+ goals
66%
Menzel Bourguiba 2+ goals
29%
Menzel Bourguiba 3+ goals
9%
Sfax Railways 1+ goals
60%
Sfax Railways 2+ goals
23%
Sfax Railways 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Menzel Bourguiba (draw refunded)
56%
Sfax Railways (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Menzel Bourguiba at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.85 · 26 matches

Sfax Railways away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.14 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Menzel Bourguiba attack 1.00 + Sfax Railways defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Sfax Railways attack 0.97 + Menzel Bourguiba defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Menzel Bourguiba scores more
39%
level
31%
Sfax Railways scores more
30%

Menzel Bourguiba at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Menzel Bourguiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Menzel Bourguiba vs Sfax Railways

Sfax Railways beat Menzel Bourguiba 2-0 in Ligue 2 on October 11, 2025.