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Sfax Railways vs Djelma — Ligue 2 2020

Sfax Railways
Sfax Railways
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Djelma
Djelma
12/30/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 12Stade d'Athlétisme 2 Mars 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Sfax Railways58%
×Draw27%
Djelma15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sfax Railways
1.44
Djelma
0.60

Sfax Railways creates 140% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 38 away

creates per match

Sfax Railways
1.30
Djelma
0.55

allows per match

Sfax Railways
0.65
Djelma
1.58

finishing

Sfax Railways+0.00on par
Djelma+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sfax Railways ↓

Djelma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sfax Railways or draw
85%
Sfax Railways or Djelma
73%
Draw or Djelma
42%

Winning margin

Sfax Railways wins by 2+
30%
Djelma wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sfax Railways 1+ goals
76%
Sfax Railways 2+ goals
42%
Sfax Railways 3+ goals
18%
Djelma 1+ goals
45%
Djelma 2+ goals
12%
Djelma 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Sfax Railways (draw refunded)
79%
Djelma (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sfax Railways at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.65 · 37 matches

Djelma away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.58 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sfax Railways attack 1.30 + Djelma defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.44

Djelma attack 0.55 + Sfax Railways defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sfax Railways scores more
58%
level
27%
Djelma scores more
15%

Sfax Railways at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sfax Railways will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Sfax Railways 2–0 Djelma

Sfax Railways beat Djelma 2-0 in Ligue 2 on December 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stade d'Athlétisme 2 Mars 2 in Safāqis.