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Djelma vs Sfax Railways — Ligue 2 2020

Djelma
Djelma
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Sfax Railways
Sfax Railways
M. Aziz Saibi 55'
M. Nasr 47'
M. M. Aissaoui 31'
A. Koussi 68'
A. Ezzine 52'
5/16/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 25Stade de Jilma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Djelma43%
×Draw31%
Sfax Railways26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djelma
1.15
Sfax Railways
0.82

Djelma creates 40% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 37 away

creates per match

Djelma
1.16
Sfax Railways
0.97

allows per match

Djelma
0.68
Sfax Railways
1.14

finishing

Djelma+0.00on par
Sfax Railways+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djelma ↓

Sfax Railways →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Djelma or draw
74%
Djelma or Sfax Railways
69%
Draw or Sfax Railways
57%

Winning margin

Djelma wins by 2+
18%
Sfax Railways wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Djelma 1+ goals
68%
Djelma 2+ goals
32%
Djelma 3+ goals
11%
Sfax Railways 1+ goals
56%
Sfax Railways 2+ goals
20%
Sfax Railways 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Djelma (draw refunded)
62%
Sfax Railways (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djelma at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.68 · 38 matches

Sfax Railways away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.14 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djelma attack 1.16 + Sfax Railways defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Sfax Railways attack 0.97 + Djelma defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Djelma scores more
43%
level
31%
Sfax Railways scores more
26%

Djelma at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Djelma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
M. M. Aissaoui
47'
M. Nasr
52'
A. Ezzine
55'
M. Aziz Saibi
68'
A. Koussi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Djelma 3–2 Sfax Railways

Djelma beat Sfax Railways 3-2 in Ligue 2 on May 16, 2025.

Goals: M. M. Aissaoui (31'), M. Nasr (47'), A. Ezzine (52'), M. Aziz Saibi (55'), A. Koussi (68').

The match was played at Stade de Jilma in Jilma.