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Sfax Railways vs Baath Bouhajla — Ligue 2 2020

Sfax Railways
Sfax Railways
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Baath Bouhajla
Baath Bouhajla
11/10/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 4Stade d'Athlétisme 2 Mars 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sfax Railways49%
×Draw31%
Baath Bouhajla20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sfax Railways
1.19
Baath Bouhajla
0.64

Sfax Railways creates 86% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sfax Railways
1.30
Baath Bouhajla
0.62

allows per match

Sfax Railways
0.65
Baath Bouhajla
1.08

finishing

Sfax Railways+0.00on par
Baath Bouhajla+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sfax Railways ↓

Baath Bouhajla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Sfax Railways or draw
80%
Sfax Railways or Baath Bouhajla
69%
Draw or Baath Bouhajla
51%

Winning margin

Sfax Railways wins by 2+
22%
Baath Bouhajla wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sfax Railways 1+ goals
70%
Sfax Railways 2+ goals
33%
Sfax Railways 3+ goals
12%
Baath Bouhajla 1+ goals
47%
Baath Bouhajla 2+ goals
14%
Baath Bouhajla 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sfax Railways (draw refunded)
71%
Baath Bouhajla (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sfax Railways at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.65 · 37 matches

Baath Bouhajla away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sfax Railways attack 1.30 + Baath Bouhajla defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.19

Baath Bouhajla attack 0.62 + Sfax Railways defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sfax Railways scores more
49%
level
31%
Baath Bouhajla scores more
20%

Sfax Railways at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sfax Railways will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sfax Railways 1 – 2 Baath Bouhajla

Baath Bouhajla beat Sfax Railways 2-1 in Ligue 2 on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stade d'Athlétisme 2 Mars 2 in Safāqis.