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Baath Bouhajla vs Sfax Railways — Ligue 2 2020

Baath Bouhajla
Baath Bouhajla
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sfax Railways
Sfax Railways
3/1/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 17Stade Municipal Bouhajla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Baath Bouhajla42%
×Draw32%
Sfax Railways27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baath Bouhajla
1.07
Sfax Railways
0.79

Baath Bouhajla creates 35% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 37 away

creates per match

Baath Bouhajla
1.00
Sfax Railways
0.97

allows per match

Baath Bouhajla
0.62
Sfax Railways
1.14

finishing

Baath Bouhajla+0.00on par
Sfax Railways+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baath Bouhajla ↓

Sfax Railways →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Baath Bouhajla or draw
73%
Baath Bouhajla or Sfax Railways
68%
Draw or Sfax Railways
58%

Winning margin

Baath Bouhajla wins by 2+
17%
Sfax Railways wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Baath Bouhajla 1+ goals
66%
Baath Bouhajla 2+ goals
29%
Baath Bouhajla 3+ goals
9%
Sfax Railways 1+ goals
55%
Sfax Railways 2+ goals
19%
Sfax Railways 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Baath Bouhajla (draw refunded)
61%
Sfax Railways (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baath Bouhajla at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Sfax Railways away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.14 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baath Bouhajla attack 1.00 + Sfax Railways defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Sfax Railways attack 0.97 + Baath Bouhajla defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Baath Bouhajla scores more
42%
level
32%
Sfax Railways scores more
27%

Baath Bouhajla at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Baath Bouhajla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Baath Bouhajla 1–2 Sfax Railways

Sfax Railways beat Baath Bouhajla 2-1 in Ligue 2 on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Bouhajla in Bouhajla.