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Sfax Railways vs AS Agareb — Ligue 2 2020

Sfax Railways
Sfax Railways
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AS Agareb
AS Agareb
4/27/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 22Stade d'Athlétisme 2 Mars 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sfax Railways57%
×Draw27%
AS Agareb16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sfax Railways
1.42
AS Agareb
0.61

Sfax Railways creates 133% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 26 away

creates per match

Sfax Railways
1.30
AS Agareb
0.58

allows per match

Sfax Railways
0.65
AS Agareb
1.54

finishing

Sfax Railways+0.00on par
AS Agareb+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sfax Railways ↓

AS Agareb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sfax Railways or draw
84%
Sfax Railways or AS Agareb
73%
Draw or AS Agareb
43%

Winning margin

Sfax Railways wins by 2+
29%
AS Agareb wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sfax Railways 1+ goals
76%
Sfax Railways 2+ goals
41%
Sfax Railways 3+ goals
17%
AS Agareb 1+ goals
46%
AS Agareb 2+ goals
13%
AS Agareb 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Sfax Railways (draw refunded)
78%
AS Agareb (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sfax Railways at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.65 · 37 matches

AS Agareb away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sfax Railways attack 1.30 + AS Agareb defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.42

AS Agareb attack 0.58 + Sfax Railways defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sfax Railways scores more
57%
level
27%
AS Agareb scores more
16%

Sfax Railways at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sfax Railways will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Sfax Railways 1–0 AS Agareb

Sfax Railways beat AS Agareb 1-0 in Ligue 2 on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Stade d'Athlétisme 2 Mars 2 in Safāqis.