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AS Agareb vs Sfax Railways — Ligue 2 2020

AS Agareb
AS Agareb
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sfax Railways
Sfax Railways
12/15/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 9Stade Agareb

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

AS Agareb39%
×Draw29%
Sfax Railways32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Agareb
1.15
Sfax Railways
1.02

AS Agareb creates 13% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 37 away

creates per match

AS Agareb
1.15
Sfax Railways
0.97

allows per match

AS Agareb
1.08
Sfax Railways
1.14

finishing

AS Agareb+0.00on par
Sfax Railways+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Agareb ↓

Sfax Railways →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

AS Agareb or draw
68%
AS Agareb or Sfax Railways
71%
Draw or Sfax Railways
61%

Winning margin

AS Agareb wins by 2+
16%
Sfax Railways wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

AS Agareb 1+ goals
68%
AS Agareb 2+ goals
32%
AS Agareb 3+ goals
11%
Sfax Railways 1+ goals
64%
Sfax Railways 2+ goals
27%
Sfax Railways 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

AS Agareb (draw refunded)
55%
Sfax Railways (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Agareb at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.08 · 26 matches

Sfax Railways away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.14 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Agareb attack 1.15 + Sfax Railways defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Sfax Railways attack 0.97 + AS Agareb defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AS Agareb scores more
39%
level
29%
Sfax Railways scores more
32%

AS Agareb at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AS Agareb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: AS Agareb 1–1 Sfax Railways

AS Agareb and Sfax Railways drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on December 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Agareb in Agareb.