SF Niederwenigern 1–1 Cronenberger SC

SF Niederwenigern

FT

1 – 1

Cronenberger SC

11/7/2021

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 12Glück Auf Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

SF Niederwenigern47%

×Draw21%

Cronenberger SC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SF NiederwenigernExpected goals in this matchCronenberger SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.68

SF Niederwenigern

2.05

Cronenberger SC

1.68

SF Niederwenigern creates 22% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 42 away

1.62

creates per match

1.12

2.23

allows per match

2.48

creates per match

SF Niederwenigern

1.62

Cronenberger SC

1.12

allows per match

SF Niederwenigern

2.23

Cronenberger SC

2.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SF Niederwenigern+0.00on par

Cronenberger SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Niederwenigern ↓

Cronenberger SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

SF Niederwenigern or draw

68%

SF Niederwenigern or Cronenberger SC

79%

Draw or Cronenberger SC

53%

Winning margin

SF Niederwenigern wins by 2+

27%

Cronenberger SC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

SF Niederwenigern 1+ goals

87%

SF Niederwenigern 2+ goals

61%

SF Niederwenigern 3+ goals

33%

Cronenberger SC 1+ goals

81%

Cronenberger SC 2+ goals

50%

Cronenberger SC 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

SF Niederwenigern (draw refunded)

59%

Cronenberger SC (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Niederwenigern at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.23 · 39 matches

Cronenberger SC away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.48 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Niederwenigern attack 1.62 + Cronenberger SC defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.05

Cronenberger SC attack 1.12 + SF Niederwenigern defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SF Niederwenigern scores more

47%

level

21%

Cronenberger SC scores more

32%

SF Niederwenigern at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SF Niederwenigern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff