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Cronenberger SC vs SF Niederwenigern — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Cronenberger SC
Cronenberger SC
CANC
17:30
SF Niederwenigern
SF Niederwenigern
4/1/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 33Horst-Neuhoff-Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Cronenberger SC48%
×Draw22%
SF Niederwenigern31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cronenberger SC
1.97
SF Niederwenigern
1.55

Cronenberger SC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 38 away

creates per match

Cronenberger SC
1.56
SF Niederwenigern
1.16

allows per match

Cronenberger SC
1.95
SF Niederwenigern
2.37

finishing

Cronenberger SC+0.00on par
SF Niederwenigern+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cronenberger SC ↓

SF Niederwenigern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Cronenberger SC or draw
69%
Cronenberger SC or SF Niederwenigern
78%
Draw or SF Niederwenigern
52%

Winning margin

Cronenberger SC wins by 2+
27%
SF Niederwenigern wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cronenberger SC 1+ goals
86%
Cronenberger SC 2+ goals
58%
Cronenberger SC 3+ goals
31%
SF Niederwenigern 1+ goals
79%
SF Niederwenigern 2+ goals
46%
SF Niederwenigern 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Cronenberger SC (draw refunded)
61%
SF Niederwenigern (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cronenberger SC at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.95 · 39 matches

SF Niederwenigern away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.37 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cronenberger SC attack 1.56 + SF Niederwenigern defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.97

SF Niederwenigern attack 1.16 + Cronenberger SC defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cronenberger SC scores more
48%
level
22%
SF Niederwenigern scores more
31%

Cronenberger SC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cronenberger SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cronenberger SC host SF Niederwenigern

April 1, 2021: Cronenberger SC take on SF Niederwenigern in Oberliga - Niederrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Cronenberger SC host SF Niederwenigern at Horst-Neuhoff-Sportplatz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.