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SF Hamborn vs FSV Duisburg — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SF Hamborn
SF Hamborn
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
FSV Duisburg
FSV Duisburg
4/23/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 35Bezirkssportanlage Im Holtkamp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

SF Hamborn55%
×Draw21%
FSV Duisburg24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SF Hamborn
2.06
FSV Duisburg
1.28

SF Hamborn creates 61% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 42 away

creates per match

SF Hamborn
1.44
FSV Duisburg
0.93

allows per match

SF Hamborn
1.64
FSV Duisburg
2.69

finishing

SF Hamborn+0.00on par
FSV Duisburg+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Hamborn ↓

FSV Duisburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

SF Hamborn or draw
76%
SF Hamborn or FSV Duisburg
79%
Draw or FSV Duisburg
45%

Winning margin

SF Hamborn wins by 2+
33%
FSV Duisburg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SF Hamborn 1+ goals
87%
SF Hamborn 2+ goals
61%
SF Hamborn 3+ goals
34%
FSV Duisburg 1+ goals
72%
FSV Duisburg 2+ goals
37%
FSV Duisburg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

SF Hamborn (draw refunded)
70%
FSV Duisburg (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Hamborn at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.64 · 36 matches

FSV Duisburg away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Hamborn attack 1.44 + FSV Duisburg defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.06

FSV Duisburg attack 0.93 + SF Hamborn defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

SF Hamborn scores more
55%
level
21%
FSV Duisburg scores more
24%

SF Hamborn at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "SF Hamborn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SF Hamborn vs FSV Duisburg

SF Hamborn and FSV Duisburg drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Bezirkssportanlage Im Holtkamp in Duisburg.