FSV Duisburg 3–4 SF Hamborn: Result & Stats

FSV Duisburg

FT

3 – 4

HT: 0 – 4

SF Hamborn

10/16/2022

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 14Kunstrasenplatz FSV Duisburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

FSV Duisburg41%

×Draw21%

SF Hamborn38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FSV DuisburgExpected goals in this matchSF Hamborn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.90

FSV Duisburg

1.98

SF Hamborn

1.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 37 away

1.38

creates per match

1.62

2.17

allows per match

2.59

creates per match

FSV Duisburg

1.38

SF Hamborn

1.62

allows per match

FSV Duisburg

2.17

SF Hamborn

2.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FSV Duisburg+0.00on par

SF Hamborn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Duisburg ↓

SF Hamborn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

FSV Duisburg or draw

62%

FSV Duisburg or SF Hamborn

79%

Draw or SF Hamborn

59%

Winning margin

FSV Duisburg wins by 2+

22%

SF Hamborn wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

FSV Duisburg 1+ goals

86%

FSV Duisburg 2+ goals

59%

FSV Duisburg 3+ goals

31%

SF Hamborn 1+ goals

85%

SF Hamborn 2+ goals

56%

SF Hamborn 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

FSV Duisburg (draw refunded)

52%

SF Hamborn (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Duisburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.17 · 40 matches

SF Hamborn away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Duisburg attack 1.38 + SF Hamborn defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 1.98

SF Hamborn attack 1.62 + FSV Duisburg defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FSV Duisburg scores more

41%

level

21%

SF Hamborn scores more

38%

FSV Duisburg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FSV Duisburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff