Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SF Grei vs Kjelsås II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

SF Grei
SF Grei
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kjelsås II
Kjelsås II
P. Askengren 59'
7/2/20223. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 13Greibanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

SF Grei34%
×Draw22%
Kjelsås II43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SF Grei
1.61
Kjelsås II
1.83

Kjelsås II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

SF Grei
1.84
Kjelsås II
0.77

allows per match

SF Grei
2.89
Kjelsås II
1.38

finishing

SF Grei+0.00on par
Kjelsås II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Grei ↓

Kjelsås II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

SF Grei or draw
57%
SF Grei or Kjelsås II
78%
Draw or Kjelsås II
66%

Winning margin

SF Grei wins by 2+
17%
Kjelsås II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

SF Grei 1+ goals
80%
SF Grei 2+ goals
48%
SF Grei 3+ goals
22%
Kjelsås II 1+ goals
84%
Kjelsås II 2+ goals
54%
Kjelsås II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

SF Grei (draw refunded)
44%
Kjelsås II (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Grei at home — creates 1.84, concedes 2.89 · 19 matches

Kjelsås II away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Grei attack 1.84 + Kjelsås II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.61

Kjelsås II attack 0.77 + SF Grei defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SF Grei scores more
34%
level
22%
Kjelsås II scores more
43%

Kjelsås II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kjelsås II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'
P. Askengren

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: SF Grei 0–1 Kjelsås II

Kjelsås II beat SF Grei 1-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on July 2, 2022.

Goals: P. Askengren (59').

The match was played at Greibanen in Oslo.