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Kjelsås II vs SF Grei — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Kjelsås II
Kjelsås II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
SF Grei
SF Grei
P. Bonful 42'
E. Jammeh 90'
C. Wielens 44'
10/16/20223. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 25Grefsen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kjelsås II58%
×Draw19%
SF Grei23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kjelsås II
2.38
SF Grei
1.44

Kjelsås II creates 65% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

Kjelsås II
1.54
SF Grei
1.11

allows per match

Kjelsås II
1.77
SF Grei
3.21

finishing

Kjelsås II+0.00on par
SF Grei+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kjelsås II ↓

SF Grei →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Kjelsås II or draw
77%
Kjelsås II or SF Grei
81%
Draw or SF Grei
42%

Winning margin

Kjelsås II wins by 2+
37%
SF Grei wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kjelsås II 1+ goals
91%
Kjelsås II 2+ goals
68%
Kjelsås II 3+ goals
42%
SF Grei 1+ goals
76%
SF Grei 2+ goals
42%
SF Grei 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kjelsås II (draw refunded)
72%
SF Grei (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kjelsås II at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

SF Grei away — creates 1.11, concedes 3.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kjelsås II attack 1.54 + SF Grei defence 3.21 → ÷2 → 2.38

SF Grei attack 1.11 + Kjelsås II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kjelsås II scores more
58%
level
19%
SF Grei scores more
23%

Kjelsås II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kjelsås II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
P. Bonful
44'
C. Wielens
90'
E. Jammeh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Kjelsås II 1–2 SF Grei

SF Grei beat Kjelsås II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on October 16, 2022.

Goals: P. Bonful (42'), C. Wielens (44'), E. Jammeh (90').

The match was played at Grefsen Stadion in Oslo.