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Seychelles vs Libya — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Seychelles
Seychelles
FT
1 – 8
Libya
Libya
11/17/2018Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 6Stade Linité (Roche Caïman (Mahé))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Seychelles9%
×Draw13%
Libya79%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seychelles
1.00
Libya
3.17

Libya creates 217% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Seychelles
0.33
Libya
2.67

allows per match

Seychelles
3.67
Libya
1.67

finishing

Seychelles+0.00on par
Libya+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seychelles ↓

Libya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–28%
0–39%
0–47%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Seychelles or draw
21%
Seychelles or Libya
87%
Draw or Libya
91%

Winning margin

Seychelles wins by 2+
3%
Libya wins by 2+
60%

Team goals

Seychelles 1+ goals
63%
Seychelles 2+ goals
26%
Seychelles 3+ goals
8%
Libya 1+ goals
96%
Libya 2+ goals
82%
Libya 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

Seychelles (draw refunded)
10%
Libya (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seychelles at home — creates 0.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

Libya away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seychelles attack 0.33 + Libya defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Libya attack 2.67 + Seychelles defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Seychelles scores more
9%
level
13%
Libya scores more
79%

Libya at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Libya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Seychelles vs Libya

Libya beat Seychelles 8-1 in Africa Cup of Nations on November 17, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Linité (Roche Caïman (Mahé)).