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Libya vs Seychelles — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Libya
Libya
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Seychelles
Seychelles
6/9/2017Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 2Stade Chedly-Zouiten (Tunis)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Libya78%
×Draw12%
Seychelles10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libya
3.67
Seychelles
1.33

Libya creates 176% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Libya
2.67
Seychelles
0.67

allows per match

Libya
2.00
Seychelles
4.67

finishing

Libya+0.00on par
Seychelles+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libya ↓

Seychelles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Libya or draw
90%
Libya or Seychelles
88%
Draw or Seychelles
22%

Winning margin

Libya wins by 2+
61%
Seychelles wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Libya 1+ goals
97%
Libya 2+ goals
87%
Libya 3+ goals
68%
Seychelles 1+ goals
74%
Seychelles 2+ goals
38%
Seychelles 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Libya (draw refunded)
89%
Seychelles (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libya at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Seychelles away — creates 0.67, concedes 4.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libya attack 2.67 + Seychelles defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.67

Seychelles attack 0.67 + Libya defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Libya scores more
78%
level
12%
Seychelles scores more
10%

Libya at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Libya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Libya vs Seychelles

Libya beat Seychelles 5-1 in Africa Cup of Nations on June 9, 2017.

The match was played at Stade Chedly-Zouiten (Tunis).